In his interview with Jeune Afrique (Issue No. 3158, March 2026), His Excellency Ismail Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic, does more than merely announce his candidacy for a sixth term. He sets a clear course: one of deliberate continuity in a volatile geopolitical environment where even the slightest institutional fragility can become a gateway for external rivalries.
Far from being a simple electoral exercise, this interview formalizes a doctrine: to protect the Djiboutian exception, consolidate sovereignty, and prepare the nation's economic transformation.
A region under pressure and continuity as a necessity
The Horn of Africa is undergoing a period of accelerated recomposition. War in Sudan, chronic instability in Somalia, rivalries among Gulf powers, and growing tensions around the Red Sea: the entire region is subjected to competing dynamics.
The recognition of Somaliland by Israel has added a further element of tension. The prospect of increased militarization of the port of Berbera is not mere speculation; it fits within a logic of competing strategic footholds along vital maritime routes.
The Head of State clearly identifies the role of the United Arab Emirates in this dynamic. The dispute with DP World transcends a simple commercial disagreement; it is part of a broader battle for control over port infrastructure in the Red Sea.
In this context, leadership continuity is presented not as a political convenience, but as a strategic necessity in the face of realignments that could directly impact national sovereignty.
Stability, national cohesion , and managing internal balances
Djibouti has built its model on stability. In a fragmented region, the country has established itself as a logistical, diplomatic, and security hub. The presence of foreign military bases attests to this geostrategic centrality.
Internal stability remains the foundation of this position. Since independence, cycles of prolonged communal violence have been avoided. The balance between Afars and Issas, long perceived as fragile, has been consolidated over time.
The President emphasizes "Djiboutianity" as a national bond. This is not an identity slogan, but a strategy to transcend primary affiliations in favor of a unified political identity. In a country where nearly a quarter of the population consists of migrants, strengthening citizenship represents a central challenge.
With approximately 300,000 migrants among 1.2 million inhabitants, the demographic pressure is significant. The government prides itself on a tradition of hospitality, notably during Ramadan when flows increase. However, this openness is accompanied by a declared vigilance: the identified risk is the transposition of external rivalries onto national territory.
The official line is to preserve internal equilibrium without renouncing humanitarian principles. This simultaneous management of hospitality and sovereignty is part of the specificity of the Djiboutian model.
Economic transformation and redistribution in a non-rentier context
Over the past two decades, Djibouti has asserted itself as a major port and logistics hub. Railway infrastructure linking Addis Ababa, free zones, and port investments have sustained continuous growth.
The new cycle aims to move beyond this intermediation model. The green industrial park project constitutes the central strategic axis. Based on 100% renewable energy, it aims to position the country in the production of green hydrogen, ammonia, and processed industrial goods.
The announced projections are ambitious: $8 billion in investments, a GDP boosted to $10 billion, and a per capita income potentially reaching $10,000. This bet aligns with the global energy transition. The stated objective is clear: to anticipate changes rather than undergo them.
Unlike several African economies, Djibouti has neither oil nor strategic minerals. Its wealth rests on its geographical position and its organizational capacity. The authorities highlight specific indicators: expansion of health coverage, an operational universal health insurance scheme, increased social assistance, greater support for students, and regular payment of civil servant salaries.
Inequalities persist, particularly regarding youth employment. However, the claimed trajectory is one of gradually reducing social vulnerabilities, financed by logistical performance and budgetary discipline.
Balanced diplomacy , asserted sovereignty , and mastered political timing
Djibouti maintains a policy of diplomatic balance. The new defense treaty with France consolidates a historic partnership. Relations with Saudi Arabia are described as constant and structuring.
Conversely, the line regarding the Emirates remains firm. The port dispute is presented as a matter of non-negotiable sovereignty. Concerning the American strikes in Somalia, the President expresses measured reserve, estimating that the fight against terrorism requires regional coordination and a detailed knowledge of the terrain. This position reflects an assertion of strategic autonomy.
The refusal to join the Abraham Accords and the caution shown regarding Red Sea realignments stem from this same doctrine: cooperation without automatic alignment.
Domestically, the removal of the presidential age limit has drawn comment. The Head of State owns this decision as an adaptation to regional circumstances. The question of succession is not denied, but it is deferred. In an unstable environment, prematurely opening internal competition could weaken institutional gains.
In 2027, Djibouti will celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of its independence. The claimed legacy revolves around three axes: preserved independence despite covetousness, consolidated internal cohesion, and initiated economic modernization. The journey has not been linear, but it has allowed the country to emerge as a visible and respected actor.
In a region where political ruptures have sometimes paved the way for instability, Djibouti prioritizes continuity. This choice may spark debate. However, it is part of a strategic reading of the context: preserve sovereignty, consolidate national identity, and undertake economic transformation.
The "Djiboutian exception" is not a rhetorical posture. It refers to a singular trajectory: that of a small state with no major natural resources which transformed its geography into a lever of relative power. The new candidacy fits within this logic. It does not mark a rupture, but the confirmation of a course: in an unstable environment, stability is a deliberate political choice.
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